There Are Four Lights

Attending TEDActive was an amazing experience. Just seeing the TED2010 simulcast alone is great—-12 sessions of TED talks in four days. Then there’s the swag; the TED gift bags and the surprise giveaway of Google Nexus One phones for the 1500 Long Beach attendees, 500 TEDActive attendees, and all the TED Associate members. One of the experiences I’m most grateful for in my TEDActive ‘10 attendance was the opportunity to give a 3min TEDYou talk, Friday morning, to an audience of a few hundred of my fellow TEDActive members.

I was second to speak, which meant following Sebastian Wernicke’s amazing talk on how to make an amazing TED talk. My 3mins was dedicated to speaking about why I think the world needs more skepticism and how I’d like to promote that idea through manga storytelling.

What I believe is an idea worth spreading can be summed up in one of my favourite Sagan quotes “For me, it is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring”. The theme of this year’s TED conference was “What the World Needs Now”. My pick for what the world needs is more skepticism, critical thinking, and science literacy.

If we want to distinguish what is true from what we simply want to be true, we will learn to be good skeptics.

TED is a conference of the world’s leading thinkers and doers. What speaks to me the most about the TED speakers is not only that they are at the leading edge of their field, but that their work is driven by a passion to somehow make the world a better place. In my own work, I’m motivated to improve my writing and art from a technical perspective, but my major focus is often to establish what my own idea worth spreading is.

Manga is a hugely popular form of sequential art. Some of the things most appealing to me about it is the diverse readership (people of all ages read manga, including a high percentage of female readers) and the unconstrained storytelling—-you can tell all kinds of stories using manga. My goal in my work as a mangaka is to create stories that show the value in critical thinking and the dangers of mixing power and ignorance. I want to create characters that are good role models as skeptics—-overcoming problems using knowledge and evidence-based thinking.

Legend of the Ztarr is the story I’m writing with these ideas in mind. Currently, the first chapter is available online. My goal for 2010 is to get the series picked up my one of the major US manga publishers.

I had a great time getting my 3mins in front of the amazing TEDActive crowd. It isn’t often I get to talk to others about my work and my passion behind it. My fellow TED 2009 Fellowship member, Tino Chow, posted about my TEDYou talk on his blog, where he covered the TED simulcast.

©tinochow

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Alternative medicine is a major public health risk. Untested and discredited treatments are promoted for just about any health problem you can imagine. Those who are most desperate are often the target of alt-med treatments, swooping in to provide an “alternative” or “complimentary” cure when real medicine, unfortunately, has been unsuccessful. There is one area, however, where the quack alternative treatment has established itself as the standard treatment: 12-step programs in the area of addiction.

Alcoholics Anonymous is the original 12 Step program, which has spawn a whole industry of recovery programs that basically copy-paste the 12 steps to deal with any addictive behaviour—-Narcotics Anonymous, Overeaters Anonymous, Workaholics Anonymous, Clutterers Anonymous, Sex and Love Addicts Anonymous, Online Gamers Anonymous, Smokers Anonymous, Emotions Anonymous—-the list goes on. There are also groups like Al-anon, where you don’t have to be an addict yourself, only someone being affected by one.

AA has been extremely successful in promoting itself as the most successful treatment for alcoholism. It markets itself as a non-denominational support group for alcohol abuse. Once inside the walls of its meetings, however, it’s clear that members are to understand that AA is the only treatment for alcoholism. It isn’t officially stated (in fact, the opening remarks are careful to say that the program is “widely regarded” as the most successful treatment), but if it isn’t implied in nearly every member’s ’share’—-their anecdotal evidence that life without AA means relapse and death—-it is certainly the message of the AA bible “Alcoholics Anonymous”, referred to as The Big Book.

What is often said in the meetings and what is written in The Big Book contradict the public image of AA as a support group for those who wish to quite drinking. What the general public doesn’t know about AA is that it is a religious group which teaches its members that alcoholism is a spiritual disease with no cure and only by giving yourself up to God can one stay sober.

“Unless each A.A. member follows to the best of his ability our suggested Twelve Steps to recovery, he almost certainly signs his own death warrant.”
Twelve Steps and Twelve Traditions, William G. Wilson, page 174.

Though it is argued that the Twelve Steps refer to a “power great than ourselves” and that ‘power’ can be anything you want, it is clear in the reading material that you are supposed to want that power to be God.

We found that as soon as we were able to lay aside prejudice and express even a willingness to believe in a Power greater than ourselves, we commenced to get results, even though it was impossible for any of us to fully define or comprehend that Power, which is God.
The Big Book, 3rd & 4th Editions, William G. Wilson, Page 46.

It is also clear that the goal of AA isn’t to stop abusing alcohol, but to serve God.

“At the moment we are trying to put our lives in order. But this is not an end in itself. Our real purpose is to fit ourselves to be of maximum service to God…”
The Big Book, William G. Wilson, page 77.

(My bold)

The magical thinking in AA is no different than that found in other alternative medicine. Like any typical spiritual healer, who will tell you that ‘negative energy’ is the cause of your cancer, AA attributes alcoholism to sins and moral shortcomings instead of alcohol consumption. In AA, being sober doesn’t mean simply not drinking. You are only sober if you have turned your will over to a power greater than yourself. Those who haven’t done this are labelled “dry drunks”. When their quack treatments don’t work, alternative medicine proponents will blame the patient. In the world of AA, if you overcome your addiction without the program (especially if you learn to drink in moderation), you were never an alcoholic in the first place.

But the most important feature of AA, true of any other alternative medicine, is that it doesn’t work. Those of us who advocate science based medicine make evidence of efficacy a requirement. The 12 Step industry deserves the same skepticism that we would apply to any other faith healing group…and people suffering from substance abuse and addiction deserve more than the “support” of a spiritual cult.

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Not many people know this, but our cats, Mya and Twinkle, are certified new age gurus (as you can see in the photo, Mya is clearly in her psychic trance). Like all successful charlatans new age gurus, they now have their own website!

You are now just a click away from their on-demand new age wisdom service! Of course, some close-minded skeptics accuse them of being nothing more than simple random woo generators.

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For those of you who may not be familiar with anime or manga this rendition of four of the greatest scientists in our history might seem a little odd. For anime/manga fans reading this who aren’t familiar with ‘Charlie, Carl, Albert and Isaac’, this is probably confusing to you as well!

Since we’re celebrating Carl Sagan Day, I thought I’d create a little piece of artwork that has been floating around in my head for a while—-what Carl Sagan, Charles Darwin, Albert Einstein, and Isaac Newton might look like if they were bishounen characters in a manga series.

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I’m currently spending a little time in Los Angeles, away from my lil’ hobbit hole up in Canada. Unlike when I’m in Canada (where I stay in my hobbit hole, have no adventures, and eat second breakfast), since I’ve been here I’ve been heading out to events and cool places—-and meeting cool people.

A couple weeks ago, I was invited out to the Magic Castle by Richard Wiseman, psychologist, magician, and author of The Luck Factor, Quirkology, and his newest book 59 Seconds. My man, Q, and I had a lovely time at the castle with everyone in our group and key lime pie and cosmopolitans were had by all! (ok, just me).

The Magic Castle is, guess what, full of magic! We had a blast and Q and I are actually headed back in October for his birthday. All of the photos can be found on my Flickr page, here.

I found out about Richard and his new book while listening to an episode of The Skeptics’ Guide to the Universe a few months back. He was being interviewed about 59 Seconds, which lead me to buying the book and then tweeting about it. His @reply of thanks and mention of my TED attendance was the beginning of our twitter friendship!

Twitter was also responsible for our outing yesterday to our first Caltech skeptics lecture. I caught Michael Shermer’s tweet about Dr. Jeff Schweitzer’s talk “Beyond Cosmic Dice: Moral Life In A Random World” and Q was nice enough to take his nerdy gal out to Pasadena to be with skeptics and endure all that sciency-stuff he doesn’t like, awww~!

Well, since I’m a TED Fellowship member, I couldn’t waste the opportunity to introduce myself to another TEDster! Here’s a pic of Michael Shermer and I from after the lecture, when everyone met up at a nearby restaurant. Unfortunately—-as you can see—-I’m back to my usual ‘no makeup + nerd vision + ponytail’ look…

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How much do you know about Alcoholics Anonymous and other 12 Step programs? It’s a support group, right? It’s safe to say it’s widely regarded as the most successful recovery program for addiction. Then again, accupuncture is widely regarded as a successful treatment for all kinds of illnesses but anyone familiar with science-based medicine knows it simply doesn’t work. So, why should 12 Step programs be treated with any less skepticism? After all, AA makes claims regarding the causes of and treatments for alcoholism. What evidence, if any, is there to support these claims?

“Undrunk: A Skeptic’s Guide to AA”, by A.J. Adams, seems anything but skeptical. That is, the word ’skeptic’ seems to be used in the “I was skeptical, at first” kind of way…rather than referring to a person who evaluates claims based on evidence and the scientific method. Has AA escaped the attention of the science and skepticism community? Certainly, the 12 Step industry must be one of the most successful quackery organizations out there–embedding themselves into the medical industry as successfully as any alternative medicine woo–and branding themselves as secular more successfully than intelligent designers.

AA and its counterparts (there’s a 12 step program for just about any addiction) are anything but secular. Of course, any program member will tell you that atheists and agnostics are welcome…but the program is chuck-full of religion; only about four of the twelves steps make no use of god or spirituality. Dr. Harriet Hall wrote a great article over at Science-Based Medicine about AA and the lack of evidence for it’s effectiveness: AA is Faith-Based, Not Evidence-Based. Another resource I found is a blog called Stinkin Thinkin:

…[W]hat we’re doing is muckraking, in the time-honored sense of the word. AA and 12-Step is has a monopoly. Sure there are some alternatives, but none of these alternatives are offered in your general addictions treatment facility. And none of these alternatives have the power to lobby in Washington the way that AA does…to get insurance money

There is a group called SOS (Secular Organizations for Sobriety, or Save Our Selves) which provides non-religious support for alcoholism and drug addiction. I found some interesting articles about AA by browsing their site:

AA, as a doctor once told me, is “an evangelical movement about saving souls”. At its core it has a good heart – it wants to save people from their demons. But, as with the death penalty, McCarthyism, the Conquistadors and other such crusades against evil, the pious ambitions of AA make the movement blind to its own hooliganism. As disinterested in individuality as the SS, and unaccountable for its actions as the KKK, AA preaches, bullies and lies to achieve its ends, and it does so with all the righteous impunity of a secret sect. Unlike other religious cults, however, AA’s victims are those who escape from its grip and return to society, their brains so laundered by fundamentalist claptrap that a glass of beer can take on the menace of a loaded pistol. That I eluded such a fate myself is thanks to nothing but sheer good luck – those not as fortunate as I can’t tell us about it, their stools at the bars and chairs in AA inhabited by new people entirely disinterested in tales of the dead ones who went before them.

I know there’s a lot of woo for skeptics to deal with, but I think the 12 Step industry deserves more criticism from the skeptical community. AA isn’t an effective treatment, never mind the most effective treatment for alcoholism, and those suffering due to substance abuse deserve treatments which are evaluated for their safety and efficacy.

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There’s a movie coming out about the end of the world called 2012. It’s based on modern-day myths that the Mayans predicted the world would end in 2012 and that there are scientific facts which support their claims. This is wrong.

The film has some new ads out that look like real commercials for an organization setup to shelter people from the devastation. Unfortunately, there are many woo-artists who have been spreading the 2012 myth for quite some time now. This major motion picture is drawing more attention to this so-called Mayan prophecy.

Griffith Observatory has a nice page on their site which debunks the 2012 myth, here. This is appropriate, since most of the myth’s claims are astronomical (no pun intended).

THERE IS NO PLANETARY ALIGNMENT on December 21st, 2012. Even if there was, planetary alignments WON’T DESTROY THE EARTH.

THERE IS NO GALACTIC ALIGNMENT of our solar system either. Our galaxy is too huge to have a midpoint that you could pinpoint to a specific year.

THERE IS NO MYSTERIOUS PLANET headed our way to destroy us. Government agencies aren’t hiding evidence of a Planet X or Planet Niburu.

Now, here comes the really silly part; guess what? THE MAYAN CALENDAR DOESN’T END IN 2012. Yes…the claim that’s the basis of the 2012 myth isn’t true either. The Mayans never made any 2012 apocalyptic predictions. Part of their calendar ends–which had many cycles–but a new one begins.

So, you probably shouldn’t be concerned about the world ending in 2012. At least, not any more than you do any other year. Our own calendar ends too—-on December 31st. I predict some people may even have a party!

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I try not to think with my gut. If I’m serious about understanding the world, thinking with anything besides my brain, as tempting as that might be, is likely to get me into trouble.

-Carl Sagan

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If you’ve read any of this blog, you’ve probably guessed I’m an atheist–that gross word people use to describe us non-believers. But I think I’ve said before that atheism isn’t what’s important to me; I’m more concerned about skepticism in general (rather than just being skeptical about gods)…because atheism alone can lead to those annoying people who say “I’m not religious, but I’m spiritual”. I know because I used to be one of those annoying people…

And spirituality still involves faith: believing something to be true without evidence, despite evidence to the contrary, or even believing something for which there can be no evidence. There seems to be only one reason why we would give in to this type of thinking; because it feels good. People only have faith in things they want to be true. And so, when you use faith you fall into a dangerous mode of thought where you let your emotions get in the way of seeing objective truth.

This is where I found what’s important to me (and why I love Carl Sagan so much)…I realized that I’m far more concerned about what’s true than what feels good. This takes much more discipline than faith, though the spiritual gurus would have you think different. Spirituality is constantly trying to convince people that faith is a virtue and that it takes a disciplined mind to make faith work.

I have never known anyone, not one person, either religious or spiritual who is happy…truly content, and content because of their faith. What I see is people constantly needing to remind themselves of their faith; day in and day out they need to repeat to themselves what they believe…as if they are deeply unsure if it really is true. They need to gather in large groups with others of similar faith to reassure one another that this is what they all believe. Not only do I find this deeply unsatisfying, but doesn’t that also seem like a ritual of self-denial?

This is why I want truth. Truth isn’t something you need to recite. The truth simply is…whether you want it to be or not…good or bad. The truth about the world around you is there whether you choose to accept it or not, whether it hurts you or not, whether you want it or you don’t. Truth doesn’t promise to always makes you happy–but isn’t there something so very selfish about wanting only what makes you happy to be real? What the truth will always offer you is understanding and that is something that stays with you.

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Oh how I luvs the Bad Astronomer. I believe I first came across Dr. Phil Plait’s astronomy blog when I was searching the interwebs to check up on a claim by some astrology proponents. It actually wasn’t that long ago when I got my first taste of new agers trying to make astrology sound sciency. I was pretty amazed at how easy it is to disprove all the pseudoscience claims. Thus, began my journey into the world of scepticism.

Though I’m just a hobbyist astronomer, I can turn into a bit of an astronomonster when the subject of astrology is brought up. There is just so much that is wrong about astrology. The first major hint that there might be something wrong with this kind of model is that it was invented by humans who thought the universe was geocentric. That’s basically all it takes to shatter astrology: discovering that our solar system revolves around the sun. But new agers don’t trouble themselves with silly things like laws of physics. Too bad, because Dr. Phil does such a nice job of explaining!

If you do manage to convince them that astrology can’t possibly work (I’ve never been successful), the last argument is that their experience in using astrology works for them. Ah, mon amie, it’s confirmation bias and the Forer effect that create the illusion that astrology works. “The Forer effect refers to the tendency of people to rate sets of statements as highly accurate for them personally even though the statements could apply to many people.” The personality models of astrology are all highly generalized so that each zodiac has pretty much the same chance of describing anyone, regardless of when they were born. It’s simple; the personality models of the zodiac are highly generalized and the personalities of people are highly complex. Of course you’re going to get a match.

It’s really simple to test astrology to see if it actually works in describing people’s personalities based on the month they were born. You simply take the traits each zodiac proposes, but then blind what zodiac (aka, birth month) the set of traits is from, and have people rate how accurately it describes them. If people end up highly rating or being matched with the ‘correct’ zodiac at a rate no better than chance, then it’s clear the model doesn’t work as it claims. This is exactly what happens each and every time astrology is tested.

Confirmation bias is the trick behind making most forms of divination, including astrology, ‘work’. Basically, it’s when we count the hits and not the misses. We do this often because we’re pattern seeking creatures. The example I use most often to describe confirmation bias is the myth that more accidents/births/craziness happens during a full moon. This is statistically untrue; when you compare lunar cycles to rates of crime/accidents/births etc. there are no relationships. But then why do so many reputable sources, like nurses and police officers, swear that this myth is true? It’s because they are just going by the memory of their own experience; they’re only recalling the times where a full moon matched up with a crazy night, and made no mental note of those crazy nights where there was a quarter moon or crescent. This happens in astrology too; we remember the times when the model did work, and don’t make a connection when it doesn’t. We may ignore the times when we met someone who didn’t match up very well with their zodiac, or just focus on the traits of their zodiac that do match with them.

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