There Are Four Lights

There’s a movie coming out about the end of the world called 2012. It’s based on modern-day myths that the Mayans predicted the world would end in 2012 and that there are scientific facts which support their claims. This is wrong.

The film has some new ads out that look like real commercials for an organization setup to shelter people from the devastation. Unfortunately, there are many woo-artists who have been spreading the 2012 myth for quite some time now. This major motion picture is drawing more attention to this so-called Mayan prophecy.

Griffith Observatory has a nice page on their site which debunks the 2012 myth, here. This is appropriate, since most of the myth’s claims are astronomical (no pun intended).

THERE IS NO PLANETARY ALIGNMENT on December 21st, 2012. Even if there was, planetary alignments WON’T DESTROY THE EARTH.

THERE IS NO GALACTIC ALIGNMENT of our solar system either. Our galaxy is too huge to have a midpoint that you could pinpoint to a specific year.

THERE IS NO MYSTERIOUS PLANET headed our way to destroy us. Government agencies aren’t hiding evidence of a Planet X or Planet Niburu.

Now, here comes the really silly part; guess what? THE MAYAN CALENDAR DOESN’T END IN 2012. Yes…the claim that’s the basis of the 2012 myth isn’t true either. The Mayans never made any 2012 apocalyptic predictions. Part of their calendar ends–which had many cycles–but a new one begins.

So, you probably shouldn’t be concerned about the world ending in 2012. At least, not any more than you do any other year. Our own calendar ends too—-on December 31st. I predict some people may even have a party!

Heeey~! Let’s write a post about things in my room I like! Okee! Hmm, what do we have? Yes, that green cat is Cringer from MotU (I no longer have his Battle Cat armor). Apparently, he’s guarding a few copies of Shojo Beat; I haven’t had a subscription this year because I never got around to reading them very often. Though, I do like scanning through them when I get stuck drawing and need some shoujo inspiration.

At the top of one of my little book piles is Hamlet. If I’m not mistaken, this copy is from my highschool days and somehow was never returned. I really like the binding–oh, and I like Hamlet…though I think I enjoy MacBeth more (Cyrano was my favourite). There’s some manga at the bottom of the pile; I don’t think I’ve read any of them. I like the artwork in Kamikaze but have no clue what the story is about. I have read some of the Fushigi Yugi Genbu Kaiden, but not lately. Wedged inbetween Kamikaze and my random copies of Secrets of Sorcerers is a Harry Potter book. I’ve actually only read the last two HP books (and by read I mean listen to Jim Dale read it to me). Now, here’s the really good stuff; my Carl Sagan books! Cosmos, Broca’s Brain, and The Varieties of Scientific Experience.

This book is definitely one of my favourites. It’s edited by Sagan’s widow, Ann Druyan, and contains his talks from the Gifford Lectures. The subtitle is “A Personal View of the Search for God”, but there’s plenty more here than just religious debate. I think Sagan explains nicely why science clashes with religious and spiritual beliefs so often, in a way that is really clear for those, like me, who have no background in science. I’m reading and listening to a few of Sagan’s books so I tend to mix up what I’ve read from which book, but what I love about Sagan is how he can explain science topics simply while still sounding ‘magical’. I think that’s what some people find missing when listening to many scientists talk; it can seem dry or cold…like there’s no emotion involved in their work. Sagan talks about nature in the same sort of poetic way that new age gurus try too. If you’ve ever heard someone say, in response to science, that they just want to believe that “there has to be more than this“, as though they just aren’t sastisfied with the ‘plain facts’ and just want that magical feeling about the universe, then you should point them towards this book; Sagan makes the universe seem just as, if not more magical than any spiritual guru could, but he just so happens to have evidence for the claims he’s so passionate about.

Now, we can’t forget about my Sky-Watcher telescope! Sadly, I haven’t used it in awhile and probably would if it wasn’t stuck in my room. The nice thing about living in a small town is there isn’t a lot of light polution, so I can just take it out onto the back deck for stargazing. And it doesn’t take very long to drive out of town away from the street lights.

Man, I really dig Jupiter and Saturn! Jupiter was the first planet I saw when I first bought my scope. I was all “wthasdkfjwoeihosif~that big bright star turns into a PLANET in this thing homg! Magic!“. It has tiny lil specs orbiting it, awwww…so cute! And yes, Saturn and its rings still amaze me each and every time I see it.

Oh how I luvs the Bad Astronomer. I believe I first came across Dr. Phil Plait’s astronomy blog when I was searching the interwebs to check up on a claim by some astrology proponents. It actually wasn’t that long ago when I got my first taste of new agers trying to make astrology sound sciency. I was pretty amazed at how easy it is to disprove all the pseudoscience claims. Thus, began my journey into the world of scepticism.

Though I’m just a hobbyist astronomer, I can turn into a bit of an astronomonster when the subject of astrology is brought up. There is just so much that is wrong about astrology. The first major hint that there might be something wrong with this kind of model is that it was invented by humans who thought the universe was geocentric. That’s basically all it takes to shatter astrology: discovering that our solar system revolves around the sun. But new agers don’t trouble themselves with silly things like laws of physics. Too bad, because Dr. Phil does such a nice job of explaining!

If you do manage to convince them that astrology can’t possibly work (I’ve never been successful), the last argument is that their experience in using astrology works for them. Ah, mon amie, it’s confirmation bias and the Forer effect that create the illusion that astrology works. “The Forer effect refers to the tendency of people to rate sets of statements as highly accurate for them personally even though the statements could apply to many people.” The personality models of astrology are all highly generalized so that each zodiac has pretty much the same chance of describing anyone, regardless of when they were born. It’s simple; the personality models of the zodiac are highly generalized and the personalities of people are highly complex. Of course you’re going to get a match.

It’s really simple to test astrology to see if it actually works in describing people’s personalities based on the month they were born. You simply take the traits each zodiac proposes, but then blind what zodiac (aka, birth month) the set of traits is from, and have people rate how accurately it describes them. If people end up highly rating or being matched with the ‘correct’ zodiac at a rate no better than chance, then it’s clear the model doesn’t work as it claims. This is exactly what happens each and every time astrology is tested.

Confirmation bias is the trick behind making most forms of divination, including astrology, ‘work’. Basically, it’s when we count the hits and not the misses. We do this often because we’re pattern seeking creatures. The example I use most often to describe confirmation bias is the myth that more accidents/births/craziness happens during a full moon. This is statistically untrue; when you compare lunar cycles to rates of crime/accidents/births etc. there are no relationships. But then why do so many reputable sources, like nurses and police officers, swear that this myth is true? It’s because they are just going by the memory of their own experience; they’re only recalling the times where a full moon matched up with a crazy night, and made no mental note of those crazy nights where there was a quarter moon or crescent. This happens in astrology too; we remember the times when the model did work, and don’t make a connection when it doesn’t. We may ignore the times when we met someone who didn’t match up very well with their zodiac, or just focus on the traits of their zodiac that do match with them.

If I could be in anything else, besides a mangaka, and had a magic wand that could make me a professional in any other field, then I would choose to be an astronomer. I think, most likely, I’d like to be a planetary scientist. I bought a telescope a couple years ago and love going out in the backyard for some stargazing. The first planet I saw was Jupiter, on a really clear summer evening. The small town I live in doesn’t have much light pollution, which is nice. It amazed me that this little instrument could turn what was otherwise just a really bright ‘star’ in the sky into a glowing planet with tiny specks of moons around it. Then there’s Saturn…homg, RINGS~! Ha ha, it’s them Jovian planets that impress the ladies (or at least, this lady).

I did this little doodle a few months ago. I have since chopped off my hair. It was really cloudy and rainy here this summer, so I didn’t get to use my telescope much. My family doesn’t really seem interested in what I look at in the sky, so I mostly get excited all by me onesies, ha! Perhaps, I’m easily amused, but looking through an eyepiece at this dot in the sky and seeing a real planet really geeks me up inside and it blows my mind that it’s so big and so far away–LIKE, WOW~a whole other planet!

This past week, I spent some time in North Bay, about a 2.5 hour drive south of where I live. Usually, nerdtasticly cool people to hang out with have to be imported here, to Kirkland, for me to get the chance to chat non-digitally. But this time, I made the journey down from the k-hole and enjoy latenight caffeine beverage loitering in the Bay. If you mention the LHC around my family you either get a response of “…..?” or “Um, like, that’s totally gonna make a black hole thingy and destroy the Earth, like, omg“–so it’s nice to get away from their adorable hicksvilleness.

On the drive back up to the ‘Shire’ (this only refers to the small part of Kirkland that I’ve hobbitised with second breakfast and no adventures), I listened to the Astronomy Cast podcast. It was the first time I’d heard the show, and this particular episode was done live from Dragon Con and the discussion was from a panel that dealt with scientific facts and/or mistakes in science fiction–from Trek, Battlestar Gallactica, to Dr. Who. I really enjoyed it so I’m checking out more of their episodes!